NFL 2011 Week 3 Picks

2011 Week 3 Picks

Last Week's Record: (11-5)

Overall Record: (20-11)

     Things seemed much easier in week 2 than they did in week 1!  Although, as the football games wrapped up on Sunday night, I realized that I had made some crazy picks.  When I saw that the Bears were playing the Saints on Sunday afternoon, I felt completely certain that the Saints would win that game.  The bad part is that I had, for some strange reason, picked the Bears to win that game!  Then, as I got ready to watch some Monday Night Football, I realized that I had picked the Rams to win against the Giants.  WHAT?!?!? I have NO idea where that pick came from!  So, I will certainly be better about taking a second look at my picks before the games start this week.  I generally try to pick based on my first instinct, and my overall record so far shows that I've been doing pretty well.  But, I can't believe how crazy these two picks were last week!!

     Just like week 1, this last week of football was a great one!  Other than the Texans, two great games really grabbed my attention.  The Raiders and Bills matched up extremely well with each other.  The game went back and forth with the Bills pulling out, although the Raiders had the opportunity to take one last second heave to the endzone.  The pass was intercepted by the Bills to seal the win.  The other game that grabbed my attention was my Game of the Week; Eagles vs Falcons. Michael Vick and the Eagles led by as much as 11 points until there were less than 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  Vick left the game in the 3rd quarter with a concussion, which left the Eagles in a pinch.  Back up quarterback and fellow scrambler, Vince Young, was listed as inactive for this game due to an earlier injury.  This meant that the Eagles were left to use their 3rd string quarterback, Mike Kafka, and give him a chance to make his NFL debut.  His stat line doesn't really look that bad.  (He was 7 of 9 in completions for 72 yards, with no interceptions and no touchdowns, giving him a QB rating of 100.0.) But, I can tell you, this stat line is very deceiving.  He did not look that good.  One of his seven completions went for 43 yards, which means that his other 6 completions only added up to 29 yards.  He just didn't look like an NFL quarterback to me.  So, once Vick was out of the game, you could just tell that the Falcons would end up coming back and pulling it out. . . which they did, 35-31.
     Now, it's week 3. This week seems to have some old rivalries being played, but most of these rivalries likely won't be close games this time around.  The Patriots are facing the Bills who are the NFL's highest scoring team right now.  The Giants and Eagles have a history of good games.  The Lions are facing the Vikings which helps usher in the start of fall.  It seems like the Lions and Vikings game has been played on Thanksgiving Day for the last several years.  There's also a rematch of last year's NFC Championship game with the Packers facing the Bears.  And, of course, the game that I am most excited about (and the one that i think will actually be the closest matchup of the week), the Texans go to New Orleans to face one of their rivals, the New Orleans Saints.  Well, with all of these rivalry games coming up, here are my picks:   

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles - L

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Carolina Panthers
Panthers - W

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Patriots - L

Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns

Dolphins - L

San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals

49ers - W

Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans

Broncos - L

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

Lions -  W

Baltimore Ravens @ St. Louis Rams

Ravens -  W 

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders

Jets - L

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers

Chargers -  W

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Cardinals - L

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Falcons - L

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts 

Steelers -  W

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys - W

Game of the Week:
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Packers -  W

photo from Huffingtonpost.com

     

     The Packers (2-0) go to Soldier Field to meet the Bears (1-1) in a rematch of last years NFC Championship game.  In the first two weeks of this season, no one has looked better than the defending Super Bowl Champion Packers, while I've had the hardest time figuring out the Bears.  In week 1, the Bears  dominated the Atlanta Falcons, but in week 2, they got dominated by the New Orleans Saints.  Both weeks have been losing picks for me.  Last year, the Packers won the NFC Championship Game 21-14.  I don't think the game will be as close this time.  I'm picking the Packers to win, and I'd be willing to say that they'll win by more than a touchdown.  Aaron Rodgers has looked unstoppable in the first two weeks of this young season, and the Bears showed that they are very beatable last week.  I also think that the Bears offense has no chance of success against the Packers defense coordinated by former Texans head coach, Dom Capers.

    

Local Game of the Week:

Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints
Saints - W

     See, I'm not a total "homer"!!!  I can, unfortunately, pick against my hometown Texans. This game could be my overall game of the week, but I figured I'd save picking the Texans to be my pick for a game of the week later in the year.  I was lucky enough to go to the Saints vs Texans preseason game this year at Reliant Stadium.  The Texans would that game 27-14, and the running game just looked amazing that night!  Ben Tate and Arian Foster combined for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 14 carries.  Well, this week, Arian Foster is still struggling with a nagging hamstring injury, but Ben Tate has still been looking good.  However, watching the Texans offense this year has been kind of discouraging.  They look very inconsistent, and Matt Schaub has thrown a lot of passes that look terrible.  We haven't seen Schaub hit a receiver in stride for a big gain yet this year.  In last Sunday's game against the Dolphins, one of Schaub's longest completions was only caught because Jacoby Jones was able to adjust after the pass was tipped by the cornerback.  Schaub's numbers from last week look great, but actually watching him play, I wouldn't have guessed that his numbers were very good because I spent the entire game frustrated with him.

     I guess that was all a bit off topic, and a long way to tell you that I don't think the Texans' offense will be very successful going against the aggressive Saints' defense, which is one of the most aggressive in the league.  Also, last week the Texans defense showed that they are also very vulnerable to an average quaterback.  In week 1, the Texans faced a terrible Kerry Collins.  In week 2, the Texans faced an average Chad Henne.  This week, the Texans face the elite quarterback Drew Brees.   I predict that Bress has no problem cutting up this pass defense, and the Texans offense had better come ready to play, or this one could get ugly.  I hate to do this, but I gotta pick the Saints to win.  The good news is that this game was one of my five picks for the Texans to lose when I predicted they would go 11-5 this year.  

Peace Out,
Luke

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This Week's Record (9-7)