Thursday, September 29, 2011

NFL 2011 Week 4 Picks

2011 Week 4 Picks

 Last Week's Record (9-7)
Overall Record (29-18)
     At almost a quarter of the way through the season, all the teams in the NFL are starting to show who they really are.  This is where you start to really see who the "Contenders" and the "Pretenders" are, and some of my picks over the first three weeks have proved that was completely wrong about some of these teams and which category they should fall into.  I've obviously over-estimated the talent in Atlanta.  Out of the first three weeks, I've been wrong about the Falcons every time.  The only game they won, I had actually picked them to lose against the Philadelphia Eagles.  Other than that, they have not looked good at all.
     I also have been very wrong about the Buffalo Bills, but I think they've also caught a lot of people off guard with how well they have played.  I've picked against the Bills in each of their first three games, and yet they have surprised everybody by going (3-0) to start the season.  The Bills are the highest scoring team in the league right now, and to be honest, I can't name a single player on their starting roster.  On ESPN, they Bills have earned the nickname, "The No-Name Bills" for that exact reason.  No big names, no big egos, just  good football so far.  
     And finally, a pleasant surprise from the NFC, has been the emergence of the Detroit Lions as a serious contender.  They've also started the season (3-0) due to the great way the perform on both sides of the ball in the passing game.  The Lions are 4th in the league throwing the ball, and also in defending the pass.  This all comes because of getting great draft picks because of some terrible seasons over the last several years, including losing all 16 games a few years ago which allowed to get Matthew Stafford with the number one overall pick in the 2009 draft.  Other young players like Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh have also had a huge impact on the success of the re-born Detroit Lions.
     Well, with all of these teams finally showing us who they really are, let's see if my picks can get any better that my (9-7) showing last week.  Here's how I see 'em:

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
Bears - W

Bills - L

Titans - W

Lions - W

Vikings - L

Redskins - W

Eagles - L

Saints - W

Giants - W

Falcons - W

Packers - W

Patriots - W

Chargers - W

Buccaneers - W



 Game of the Week
AND
Local Game of the Week:
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans
Steelers - L
     Okay, okay. This is the first, but probably not the last time that this will happen.  But, as I looked at this week's games, the best, and most interesting, matchup that I could find was the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and my hometown Houston Texans.  I think the Ravens vs Jets game might be a good one, and I think the Lions vs Cowboys ought to be a good game.  But, I just can't get over the excitement about seeing the Steelers come to Houston.
     I remember several years ago when the Steelers played the Oilers, you always knew you were going to see a great game, and probably a little bit of fighting too!  I think it was probably 1996 that there was a big brawl in one of these games, that took the rivalry to a whole new level.  After that, if these two teams were playing each other, I wanted to watch just to see what happened next.   
     Well, of course the Oilers moved to Tennessee and became the Tennessee Titans. But I think for a Houston football fan, there still has to be quite a bit of excitement to see those yellow and black uniforms come back to our house to face this Texans team.
     There are so many reasons to be excited about this game.  One of those reasons is that the Steelers are like the Yankees of football.  Anytime your team hosts an elite franchise with recent success, it is a game worth watching.  The Steelers have been to three Super Bowls recently and won two of those games, so clearly, this is a team that knows what it is like to win.  The other big reason I am excited about this game, is that the Texans are actually favored to win!  (Although I clearly haven't bought into that idea just yet)  After I made my pick for the Steelers to win this game, I went and checked some sites that show the odds on who will win, and almost every site picked the Texans to win.  That is very exciting!  
     However, no matter what computer system these websites use to pick the winners and losers, they didn't see what I saw last week in the Texans' game against the New Orleans Saints.  Drew Brees showed Texans fans our worst nightmare: the Texans' pass defense is still not very good.  Starting in the third quarter last week, Drew Brees found corner back Kareem Jackson and just kept testing him.  The Texans gave up 23 fourth quarter points mainly because our pass defense just looked pathetic.  Every time a Saints receiver caught a pass, it looked like Kareem Jackson was supposed to be covering him, but was five or six yards away from the receiver.  I don't consider the Steelers to have an elite offense, but they do have two elite receivers in Mike Wallace  and Hines Ward. This is bad news after the Saints beat the Texans with one or two good receivers.   
     So, although many people and computer systems are picking the Texans to win this game, I just think that Ben Roethlisberger is a smart enough guy to find Kareem Jackson and just tear him apart with his two elite targets.  In sticking with my original (11-5) prediction for the Texans this season, this was one of those five.  Steelers win. . .Comfortably.



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This Week's Record (12-4) 
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1 comment:

  1. DannySeptember 29, 2011 at 7:34 PM

    My Picks (*=opposite of your pick)
    BEARS
    BILLS
    *BROWNS
    LIONS
    VIKINGS
    REDSKINS
    EAGLES
    SAINTS
    *CARDINALS
    FALCONS
    PACKERS
    PATS
    CHARGERS
    RAVENS
    BUCCS
    *TEXANS

    ReplyDelete

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