NFL 2011 Week 4 Picks

2011 Week 4 Picks

Last Week's Record (9-7)
Overall Record (29-18)

     At almost a quarter of the way through the season, all the teams in the NFL are starting to show who they really are.  This is where you start to really see who the "Contenders" and the "Pretenders" are, and some of my picks over the first three weeks have proved that was completely wrong about some of these teams and which category they should fall into.  I've obviously over-estimated the talent in Atlanta.  Out of the first three weeks, I've been wrong about the Falcons every time.  The only game they won, I had actually picked them to lose against the Philadelphia Eagles.  Other than that, they have not looked good at all.

     I also have been very wrong about the Buffalo Bills, but I think they've also caught a lot of people off guard with how well they have played.  I've picked against the Bills in each of their first three games, and yet they have surprised everybody by going (3-0) to start the season.  The Bills are the highest scoring team in the league right now, and to be honest, I can't name a single player on their starting roster.  On ESPN, they Bills have earned the nickname, "The No-Name Bills" for that exact reason.  No big names, no big egos, just  good football so far.  

     And finally, a pleasant surprise from the NFC, has been the emergence of the Detroit Lions as a serious contender.  They've also started the season (3-0) due to the great way the perform on both sides of the ball in the passing game.  The Lions are 4th in the league throwing the ball, and also in defending the pass.  This all comes because of getting great draft picks because of some terrible seasons over the last several years, including losing all 16 games a few years ago which allowed to get Matthew Stafford with the number one overall pick in the 2009 draft.  Other young players like Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh have also had a huge impact on the success of the re-born Detroit Lions.

     Well, with all of these teams finally showing us who they really are, let's see if my picks can get any better that my (9-7) showing last week.  Here's how I see 'em:

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
Bears - W

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals

Bills - L

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns

Titans - W

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys

Lions - W

Minnesota Vikings @ Kansas City Chiefs

Vikings - L

Washington Redskins @ St. Louis Rams

Redskins - W

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles - L

New Orleans Saints @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Saints - W

New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals

Giants - W

Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks

Falcons - W

Denver Broncos @ Green Bay Packers

Packers - W

New England Patriots @ Oakland Raiders

Patriots - W

Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers

Chargers - W

New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens

Ravens - W

Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buccaneers - W

Game of the Week
AND

Local Game of the Week:
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans
Steelers - L

     Okay, okay. This is the first, but probably not the last time that this will happen.  But, as I looked at this week's games, the best, and most interesting, matchup that I could find was the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and my hometown Houston Texans.  I think the Ravens vs Jets game might be a good one, and I think the Lions vs Cowboys ought to be a good game.  But, I just can't get over the excitement about seeing the Steelers come to Houston.

     I remember several years ago when the Steelers played the Oilers, you always knew you were going to see a great game, and probably a little bit of fighting too!  I think it was probably 1996 that there was a big brawl in one of these games, that took the rivalry to a whole new level.  After that, if these two teams were playing each other, I wanted to watch just to see what happened next.   

     Well, of course the Oilers moved to Tennessee and became the Tennessee Titans. But I think for a Houston football fan, there still has to be quite a bit of excitement to see those yellow and black uniforms come back to our house to face this Texans team.

     There are so many reasons to be excited about this game.  One of those reasons is that the Steelers are like the Yankees of football.  Anytime your team hosts an elite franchise with recent success, it is a game worth watching.  The Steelers have been to three Super Bowls recently and won two of those games, so clearly, this is a team that knows what it is like to win.  The other big reason I am excited about this game, is that the Texans are actually favored to win!  (Although I clearly haven't bought into that idea just yet)  After I made my pick for the Steelers to win this game, I went and checked some sites that show the odds on who will win, and almost every site picked the Texans to win.  That is very exciting!  

     However, no matter what computer system these websites use to pick the winners and losers, they didn't see what I saw last week in the Texans' game against the New Orleans Saints.  Drew Brees showed Texans fans our worst nightmare: the Texans' pass defense is still not very good.  Starting in the third quarter last week, Drew Brees found corner back Kareem Jackson and just kept testing him.  The Texans gave up 23 fourth quarter points mainly because our pass defense just looked pathetic.  Every time a Saints receiver caught a pass, it looked like Kareem Jackson was supposed to be covering him, but was five or six yards away from the receiver.  I don't consider the Steelers to have an elite offense, but they do have two elite receivers in Mike Wallace  and Hines Ward. This is bad news after the Saints beat the Texans with one or two good receivers.   

     So, although many people and computer systems are picking the Texans to win this game, I just think that Ben Roethlisberger is a smart enough guy to find Kareem Jackson and just tear him apart with his two elite targets.  In sticking with my original (11-5) prediction for the Texans this season, this was one of those five.  Steelers win. . .Comfortably.



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This Week's Record (12-4) 

NFL 2011 Week 3 Picks

2011 Week 3 Picks

Last Week's Record: (11-5)

Overall Record: (20-11)

     Things seemed much easier in week 2 than they did in week 1!  Although, as the football games wrapped up on Sunday night, I realized that I had made some crazy picks.  When I saw that the Bears were playing the Saints on Sunday afternoon, I felt completely certain that the Saints would win that game.  The bad part is that I had, for some strange reason, picked the Bears to win that game!  Then, as I got ready to watch some Monday Night Football, I realized that I had picked the Rams to win against the Giants.  WHAT?!?!? I have NO idea where that pick came from!  So, I will certainly be better about taking a second look at my picks before the games start this week.  I generally try to pick based on my first instinct, and my overall record so far shows that I've been doing pretty well.  But, I can't believe how crazy these two picks were last week!!

     Just like week 1, this last week of football was a great one!  Other than the Texans, two great games really grabbed my attention.  The Raiders and Bills matched up extremely well with each other.  The game went back and forth with the Bills pulling out, although the Raiders had the opportunity to take one last second heave to the endzone.  The pass was intercepted by the Bills to seal the win.  The other game that grabbed my attention was my Game of the Week; Eagles vs Falcons. Michael Vick and the Eagles led by as much as 11 points until there were less than 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  Vick left the game in the 3rd quarter with a concussion, which left the Eagles in a pinch.  Back up quarterback and fellow scrambler, Vince Young, was listed as inactive for this game due to an earlier injury.  This meant that the Eagles were left to use their 3rd string quarterback, Mike Kafka, and give him a chance to make his NFL debut.  His stat line doesn't really look that bad.  (He was 7 of 9 in completions for 72 yards, with no interceptions and no touchdowns, giving him a QB rating of 100.0.) But, I can tell you, this stat line is very deceiving.  He did not look that good.  One of his seven completions went for 43 yards, which means that his other 6 completions only added up to 29 yards.  He just didn't look like an NFL quarterback to me.  So, once Vick was out of the game, you could just tell that the Falcons would end up coming back and pulling it out. . . which they did, 35-31.
     Now, it's week 3. This week seems to have some old rivalries being played, but most of these rivalries likely won't be close games this time around.  The Patriots are facing the Bills who are the NFL's highest scoring team right now.  The Giants and Eagles have a history of good games.  The Lions are facing the Vikings which helps usher in the start of fall.  It seems like the Lions and Vikings game has been played on Thanksgiving Day for the last several years.  There's also a rematch of last year's NFC Championship game with the Packers facing the Bears.  And, of course, the game that I am most excited about (and the one that i think will actually be the closest matchup of the week), the Texans go to New Orleans to face one of their rivals, the New Orleans Saints.  Well, with all of these rivalry games coming up, here are my picks:   

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles - L

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Carolina Panthers
Panthers - W

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Patriots - L

Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns

Dolphins - L

San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals

49ers - W

Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans

Broncos - L

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

Lions -  W

Baltimore Ravens @ St. Louis Rams

Ravens -  W 

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders

Jets - L

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers

Chargers -  W

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Cardinals - L

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Falcons - L

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts 

Steelers -  W

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys - W

Game of the Week:
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Packers -  W

photo from Huffingtonpost.com

     

     The Packers (2-0) go to Soldier Field to meet the Bears (1-1) in a rematch of last years NFC Championship game.  In the first two weeks of this season, no one has looked better than the defending Super Bowl Champion Packers, while I've had the hardest time figuring out the Bears.  In week 1, the Bears  dominated the Atlanta Falcons, but in week 2, they got dominated by the New Orleans Saints.  Both weeks have been losing picks for me.  Last year, the Packers won the NFC Championship Game 21-14.  I don't think the game will be as close this time.  I'm picking the Packers to win, and I'd be willing to say that they'll win by more than a touchdown.  Aaron Rodgers has looked unstoppable in the first two weeks of this young season, and the Bears showed that they are very beatable last week.  I also think that the Bears offense has no chance of success against the Packers defense coordinated by former Texans head coach, Dom Capers.

    

Local Game of the Week:

Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints
Saints - W

     See, I'm not a total "homer"!!!  I can, unfortunately, pick against my hometown Texans. This game could be my overall game of the week, but I figured I'd save picking the Texans to be my pick for a game of the week later in the year.  I was lucky enough to go to the Saints vs Texans preseason game this year at Reliant Stadium.  The Texans would that game 27-14, and the running game just looked amazing that night!  Ben Tate and Arian Foster combined for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 14 carries.  Well, this week, Arian Foster is still struggling with a nagging hamstring injury, but Ben Tate has still been looking good.  However, watching the Texans offense this year has been kind of discouraging.  They look very inconsistent, and Matt Schaub has thrown a lot of passes that look terrible.  We haven't seen Schaub hit a receiver in stride for a big gain yet this year.  In last Sunday's game against the Dolphins, one of Schaub's longest completions was only caught because Jacoby Jones was able to adjust after the pass was tipped by the cornerback.  Schaub's numbers from last week look great, but actually watching him play, I wouldn't have guessed that his numbers were very good because I spent the entire game frustrated with him.

     I guess that was all a bit off topic, and a long way to tell you that I don't think the Texans' offense will be very successful going against the aggressive Saints' defense, which is one of the most aggressive in the league.  Also, last week the Texans defense showed that they are also very vulnerable to an average quaterback.  In week 1, the Texans faced a terrible Kerry Collins.  In week 2, the Texans faced an average Chad Henne.  This week, the Texans face the elite quarterback Drew Brees.   I predict that Bress has no problem cutting up this pass defense, and the Texans offense had better come ready to play, or this one could get ugly.  I hate to do this, but I gotta pick the Saints to win.  The good news is that this game was one of my five picks for the Texans to lose when I predicted they would go 11-5 this year.  

Peace Out,
Luke

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This Week's Record (9-7)

NFL 2011 Week 2 Picks

2011 Week 2 Picks

Week One Record: (9-6)

2011 Overall Record: (9-6)

                What a wild week of football to start the 2011 season!!  Several upsets made my picks look terrible!  The Baltimore Ravens really showed up against the Steelers, and their starting QB, Joe Flacco, must’ve read my week one picks and gotten upset.  He threw for three touchdowns in a 35-7 victory.  In the same light, the Texans lived up to everyone else’s expectations and stomped on the Indianapolis Colts.  I had predicted that the Texans would win, but that it wouldn’t be a blow out like it was.  Although the Texans didn’t score a single point in the second half, they still won with a score of 34-7.   The defense looked amazing although they were going against an old Kerry Collins, and very young offensive line. 

                Another game that caught me completely off guard was the Atlanta Falcons playing the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago.   The Bears defense bent but didn’t break against the high powered Falcons offense.  They gave up 319 yards of passing to Matt Ryan and 100 yards rushing to Michael Turner, but neither got into the end zone.  The Bears won 30-12. 

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                Let’s go ahead and get into my week 2 picks!  This week has some great matchups to make my Game of the Week pick a tough one.  There are two great NFC matchups with the Falcons going against the new-look Eagles, and the Bears going against the Saints.  Also, you’ve got a great AFC matchup with the Patriots going against the Chargers.  This is a rematch from an AFC Championship game just a few years ago.  Here’s how I’ve picked ‘em:

Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills

Raiders - L

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions

Lions - W

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans

Ravens - L

Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts

Browns - W

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings

Buccaneers - W

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints

Bears - L

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets

Jets - W

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers - W

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins

Redskins - W

Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers

Packers - W

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers

Cowboys - W

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos

Broncos - W

San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots

Patriots - W

St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants

Rams - L

Game of the Week:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons

Eagles - L

                This is definitely a game that I would love to see.  You’ve got two of the most exciting offenses in the NFC going at it.  For the Eagles, Michael Vick is finally returning to his former self and they’ve got some great talent at the receiver position.  On the other side of the field, Matt Ryan is one of the best young quarterbacks in the league.  Pair that with Michael Turner at running back, Tony Gonzalez at tight end, and rookie, Julio Jones, at wideout, you’ve got an offense that can be a ton of fun to watch.   However, with some key free agent additions to the Eagles defense in this last off season, in including cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, I think the Eagles will pull out the victory.

Hometown Game:

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins

Texans - W

                Two teams coming off of two very different defensive performances.  The Dolphins gave up an unbelievable 600 yards of offense on Monday night in a losing effort to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.  On the other hand, the Texans only gave up 7 points, and had some big plays against the Colts in week 1.  This week, the Texans will have to keep a close on eye on Reggie Bush and the many ways that he can be used.  Last week, he didn’t do a whole lot on the ground, but he caught several passes out of the backfield showing how versatile of a weapon he really is.  The Texans will also have to be very careful to not let Chad Henne, the starting quarterback for the Dolphins, get lose and run on them.  Henne showed last week that his legs are very valuable as he was actually the Dolphins leading rusher by racking up 59 yards running with the football. 

                I think the Texans offense will actually look even better this week because it looks like Arian Foster will be healthy enough to play.  He didn’t play at all last week after he strained his hamstring in the third preseason game in San Francisco.  The Texans will likely be without their number two receiver, Kevin Walter, who suffered a badly bruised shoulder in week 1.  The initial report said that he broke a bone in his shoulder and he would be out 10-12 weeks.  On Monday, that rumor was put to rest, but it is still likely that we won’t see him this Sunday.   The defense will definitely have more of a challenge this week, but I don’t think it is anything that they can’t handle.  Wade Phillips’ guys were extremely aggressive in week one which led to sacks and turnovers.  Don’t look for them to back off too much this week.  Texans win again.

Peace Out,                                                                                                                                                                                                       Luke

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This Week's Record (11-5)

NFL 2011 Week 1 Picks

2011 Week 1 Picks    

 I know this is a couple of days late, considering the fact that I missed the Packers and Saints game, but for this NFL season, I will be posting my picks for the games every week.  Not that I am any sort of expert on predicting the outcomes of games, I tend to make my predictions based on how I feel about a certain team at any given moment.  I hope you guys will check back every week to see how I'm doing.  Through the season, I'll keep my personal win-loss record.  When I predict a game correctly, it will count as a win, and if my prediction is incorrect for a game, that goes as a loss.  And my last little note about how this will work, I don't like getting into the "spread" of games.  I will make my predictions based on my feelings and opinions, not based on a Vegas spread, and I will do my best not to take other, so-called "experts" opinions into account as I give my predictions.

     So, as a fun little project for myself, here are my week 1 picks!!

Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears

Falcons - L

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Browns - L

        

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs - L

                

Philadelphia Eagles @ St. Louis Rams

Eagles - W

Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lions - W

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Titans - L

New York Giants @ Washington Redskins

Giants - L

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

49ers - W

Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers

Chargers - W

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals - W

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets

Jets - W

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Patriots - W

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Broncos - W

Game of the Week:

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Steelers - L

     I think these teams match up pretty evenly on defense, but I think the Steelers' offense is just a bit better than the Ravens.  Joe Flacco is a great quarterback, but I just don't think that he has what it takes to beat the Steelers in an Opening Day matchup.  This is always a very physical matchup that feels more like a good ol' fashion street rumble than an NFL football game, and that is why it is my Game of the Week!

Baltimore Sun photo by Christopher T. Assaf.

Hometown Game:

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Texans -W

Photo by Robert H. Levey/Getty Images North America

     Last year, the Texans beat the Colts to open the season at home when the Colts had a healthy Peyton Manning.  The Texans also had Arian Foster last year who broke out with over 230 yards of rushing in that game.  This year is different. Manning is definitely not playing after having another neck surgery recently, and Foster is listed as day-to-day.  He has not practiced all week, which would probably indicate that he will not play on Sunday, leaving a lot of work for Derrick Ward and Ben Tate.  These guys have looked great in the four preseason games, so I don't think that losing Foster in place of these guys will affect the outcome of the game too much.

     I can't wait to see the Texans new defense finally get after a first team offense and really show what they've got.  The new defensive coordinator, Wade Phillips, seems to have already made a huge impact on this defense that really struggled last year.  They definitely won't be perfect, but with the defensive additions of J.J. Watt, Danieal Manning, and Johnathan Joseph, I think this defense will be much better than last year and again, I CAN'T WAIT to see them play!!

     Some people think this will be an easy game for the Texans.  I haven't bought into that just yet, but I think the Texans will manage to beat a Peyton Manning-less Colts team to open the 2011 NFL season.

    Without a lot of time to go through and make a full season prediction, I will give you my prediction for the Texans 2011 win-loss record.  Going through their schedule, I can see them doing very well against a very week AFC South and only losing one game in the division.  Outside of their division, I see them losing to the Saints, Steelers, Ravens, and Falcons.  If this holds true, I predict the Texans will win the AFC South with an 11-5 record.  Of course this is with the assumption that our key players on offense and defense can manage to stay healthy, our offense can pick up where they left off from last year, and the defense will be as good as advertised.

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     As you can see, every week I will pick a "Game of the Week."  This will not be anyone else's game of the week, (not intentionally) and it won't necessarily be a prime time Sunday or Monday night game.  This game will basically be a game that I would make it a point to watch if I could for any given reason, and a game that I think will be a very even matchup.

     Also, I will be giving more detailed thoughts on what I think will happen with the Texans games every week simply because I am a "Homer" and will typically have more to say than just a winner and loser.

     Well, that's all for my week one predictions.  I hope you'll track my predictions through the season.  Let me know if you agree or disagree with any of my picks!!

Peace Out,
Luke

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This Week's Record (9-6)